Number one presidential contender: Peña Nieto

There’s only one major political party in Mexico that has a shoe-in presidential candidate for 2012 and he has something of the John F. Kennedy about him, at least in the looks department.

Just seven years ago Institutional Revolution Party (PRI) member Enrique Peña Nieto was a small time, baby-faced local politician in the Estado de Mexico. His rise since then has been meteoric. A recent Mitosfsky study showed 90 percent of Mexicans know who he is and 51 percent said they would vote for him if it was a straight race between him, Santiago Creel (PAN) and Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (PRD), currently the most popular candidates for the other two main parties.

“Pres-i-den-te, Pres-i-den-te,” rings out when Peña Nieto speaks in front of his supporters.

That is testament to his slick Public Relations drive aided by 44-year-old Peña Nieto’s easy on the eye appearance and the publicity surrounding his recent marriage to high profile soap star Angélica Rivera, commonly known as “La Gaviota.” Estado de Mexico Governor Peña Nieto is always well groomed, always smiling and regularly appears in magazines and on national television. He already employs people to manage his Facebook and Twitter accounts and regularly uploads videos to YouTube.

Peña Nieto’s youth brings the PRI back as a real political force after it was booted out of office after 71 years of tyrannical rule in 2000. Voters are much more likely to believe 44-year-old Peña Nieto when he says that the party has changed than someone more associated with the regime of old. The party itself seems to be well aware of that fact. Political enemies say the party has simply changed its guise and remains the same underneath.

“Like a junk product, like a soap opera,” is Lopez Obrador’s perception of the Peña Nieto package.

Outside of the smiling images and fairytail marriages, father-of-three Peña Nieto has been involved in a certain amount of controversy.

The “Peña Nieto Law” gained nationwide notorioty. It was born out of the fear that when the next governor’s election takes place in the Estado de Mexico on July 3, the PAN and left wing PRD will field a joint candidate to oust the PRI. Knowing how important it is to him that the PRI win in the Estado de Mexico, Peña Nieto introduced the law intending to effectively ban such alliances although it seems to have had little effect. The PAN and PRD are still considering an alliance aimed at getting rid of “authoritarianism, cronyism and cover-ups,” according to Gustavo Madero the national leader of the PAN. The PRI has controled the Estado de Mexico for 82 years.

Socially controversial was the case of Agustin Estrada who used to run a center for disabled children in the Estado de Mexico. In 2007 he dressed as a woman to perform in a musical. The next day he was sacked. Estrada currently resides abroad in political asylum after he made complaints against the government and authorities and received death threats. He also endured prison, raped and beaten on multiple occasions; Estrada said that Peña Nieto insulted him when he personally asked the governor for help to get his job back. Amnesty International and the United Nations have both condemned the treatment of Estrada by state and local authorities in the Estado de Mexico. Ironically, Estrada financially backed Peña Nieto’s campaign to be state governor.

There has also been a controversy about putting a light and sound show close to the famous Teotihuacan pyramids. Peña Nieto gave the go ahead and refused to back down while others protested that the work damaged the pyramids.

An argument rages on internet forums about whether the politician had anything to do with his first wife’s death in 2007. The question has also been asked in the Estado de Mexico Congress, no doubt leaving a bad taste in the mouths of many. In a presidential election campaign though such ugly allegations could be brought up and Peña Nieto must be prepared, especially if the campaign turn nasty. The official and widely accepted version of events is that she had a heart attack following an epileptic fit.

On the positive side, Peña Nieto has been praised for his bipartisanship for working with Mexico City’s PRD Mayor Marcelo Ebrard in coming to common solutions in what is essentially the same conurbation.

Peña Nieto portrays himself as a defender of energy reform, the development of the country’s economy and has released an eleven-point plan to combat security problems in the country.

The next big test is making sure that the PRI candidate wins the Estado de Mexico election in July. A win would provide much momentum and an approval of the work Peña Nieto has done. Defeat would certainly damage the momentum of the most likely next Mexican president.

Left has big problem selecting candidate as AMLO leaves PRD

The left-wing Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) is hoping to be swept to power in 2012 off the back of disillusionment with the National Action Party (PAN) and the stigma that is still attached to the Party of the Institutional Revolution (PRI) after decades of one-party rule.

A big problem remains. Whereas the PAN doesn’t seem to have a clear-cut candidate, the PRD has two. That could be equally, if not more, damaging to the party’s hopes.

A recent Mitofsky poll PRD supporters shows former presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador with a clear lead over Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard – 69.8 percent to 23.3 percent.

Those figures don’t tell the whole story. The same poll shows Lopez Obrador with a minus-18.2 opinion reading from Mexicans interviewed with a range of political affiliations. In other words, Lopez Obrador is loved on the left but despised by many others and is unlikely to be able to reach out to undecided Mexicans, many of whom view him as a bad loser for continually contesting the result of the 2006 election. Perhaps that is the reason the Mexican Spanish-language press believe Ebrard is a shoe-in for the candidacy, despite Lopez Obrador’s support among PRD members. Also, Lopez Obrador doesn’t see eye-to-eye with current PRD leaders, especially over alliances with the PAN in certain states.

This week, Lopez Obrador resigned from the party over the alliance issues and problems with the leadership, although he stresses it is a temporary measure.

“It’s something we should be worried about,” said Ebrard on his rival’s resignation. “Let’s see if we can come up with an agreement soon. I hope so.”

Ebrard realizes that the left-wing vote would be split if the two ran against each other. Only a single left-wing candidate has a realistic chance of beating the resurgent PRI.

Lopez Obrador knows it too: “At the right moment will we come to an agreement about who is better placed (to run for the candidacy). That’s the pact we have. I’m not seeking power for power’s sake, I’m not driven by personal ambition. I fight for ideals and for principles.”

Publicly, Ebrard and Lopez Obrador say they are friends. In 2000, Ebrard stepped aside in the election for Mexico City mayor to leave the door open for Lopez Obrador.
This time around the friendship may be severely tested if one of the two refuses to step aside.

Jalisco governor throws his hat into the ring

It’s clear that President Felipe Calderon’s National Action Party (PAN) has no obvious presidential candidate for the 2012 election. One man this week raised his voice: “I can beat Peña Nieto!”

The voice was that of Jalisco Governor Emilio Gonzalez at a closed meeting of party heavyweights in Mexico City. Enrique Peña Nieto is the man many believe has the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) candidature already in the bag, and who is the frontrunner to be the next president, according to a recent Mitofsky poll.

That Gonzalez can make a challenge must be in doubt. He has been a polemic governor. Disputes with the Universidad de Guadalajara, comments about gay marriages making him “sick” and his fondness for tequila (some refer to him ‘Etilio’), amid other scandals, have turned many sectors of Jalisco society against him.

In the Mexico City meeting, Gonzalez made light of the drunk tag and said in Jalisco it was compulsory to drink tequila. Of his frequent blunders in speeches, Gonzalez said he has frequently said “pendejadas,” or stupid things, but that he is honest and no one can accuse him of being corrupt.

Combined with Gonzalez’s nationwide TV commercials that are being investigated for violating the constitution, it seems safe to assume the deeply religious politician born in Lagos de Moreno has now “unofficially” confirmed he would like the PAN nomination. Gonzalez will hope the violence in Jalisco remains relatively subdued and that a successful Pan American Games in October can propel him onto the national stage.

“I’m not discounting myself but I’m not confirming anything either,” said Gonzalez for the umpteenth time last Sunday in Veracruz, a day after lauding himself in the private Mexico City meeting.

It’s to Gonzalez’s advantage that the PAN has no clear-cut candidate but those who have already made their intent to run public seem to have a clear lead. A Mitofsky poll of PAN members from January 30 shows Gonzalez with plenty of work to do. The poll puts Senator Santiago Creel on 40 percentage points, ahead of PAN parliamentary coordinator Josefina Vazquez on 16.8 percent. Gonzalez received a paltry 2.5 percent support from his fellow Panistas.

Speech in which Gonzalez appears to be drunk while talking to businessmen and women and prominent members of the Catholic Church (in Spanish, contains swearing):

BCS victory for PAN

President Felipe Calderon´s National Action Party (PAN) won the governorship of Baja California Sur Sunday, February 6 after 12 years of Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) rule.

PAN candidate Marco Covarrubias won with 40 percent of the vote with the Institutional Revolution Party´s (PRI) Ricardo Barrosos in second place with 34 percent. The PRD won 21 percent of the vote.

The result, in Mexico´s least populated state, was something of a surprise following the result in Guerrero the week before where the PRD won after the PAN candidate stepped aside. Perhaps the fact that Covarrubias used to be a member of the PRD helps to explain the result.

The next elections in Mexico will take place as follows:

July 3: Coahuila
Governor and Congress. Incumbent: Humberto Moreira (PRI)

July 3: Nayarit
Governor, Congress and Mayoral. Incumbent: Ney Gonzalez (PRI)

July 3: Mexico State
Governor. Incumbent: Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI)

July 3 : Hidalgo
Mayoral

November 13: Michoacan
Governor, Congress and Mayoral. Incumbent: Leonel Godoy (PRD)

Left wing wins in Guerrero

In the first state governor election of the year in south-western state of Guerrero, the left-wing Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD)-led coalition candidate Angel Aguirre secured victory against the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) faction in a bitterly fought campaign.

The left wing coalition won by over 13 percentage points to hold onto the state governorship. Thankfully, there were no major violent incidences in a state that has been dogged this year by fighting between rival drug cartels.

Perhaps the biggest story of the election was the pitiful performance of the National Action Party (PAN), of president Felipe Calderon, which received less than two percent of the vote after its candidate decided to back the PRD in the week before the vote. Even before the U-turn, Spanish-language national newspaper El Universal only had the party at 4 percent.

PRI candidate Manuel Añorve cried foul and signalled he would contest the decision.
“The dirty war in this election can’t and shouldn’t be left unpunished,” Añorve told the press. Añorve charged the PRD with “ buying votes” and “plundering.” Ironically, the complaints were similar to those of PRD-candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador after the 2006 presidential election.

Mexico City mayor Marcelo Ebrard was delighted with the victory and signaled it would be the first of many. He is in prime position to be the left wing candidate in 2012.

“This demonstrates that the people can overcome the PRI apparatus,” said Ebrard. “They overcame the intentions of the PRI.”

Immediately after the result the PRI tried to distance Enrique Peña Nieto, the governor of the Estado de Mexico and shoe-in candidate for the PRI in 2012, from the contest even though he was prominent in supporting Añorve.

Instead, the PRI said citizens of Mexico City should ask Ebrard to justify the alleged money that made its way to Guerrero from city coffers. Various Pristas said the outcome would be different come 2011.

On February 6 citizens of PRD-run Baja California go to the polls.

PRD looks to have edge in Guerrero

Early vote counting in the violence-affected state of Guerrero suggests the left-wing PRD-led coalition has secured an important victory against the PRI coalition.

At 7:20 p.m. the PRD had 52.8 % of the votes counted compared to 46 % for the PRI.

Both the PRI candidate Manuel Añorve and the PRD candidate Ángel Aguirre have declared themselves victorious.

A Mitosvky exit polls also suggested that PRD candidate is the preferred candidate as have three other separate pollster companies.

Full results from the hard fought campaign are due to be announced tomorrow (Monday) evening.

Dirty campaign as Guerrero sets itself for election

With the backdrop of over 80 drug-cartel related deaths so far this year, citizens of Guerrero go to the polls Sunday, January 30 to elect a new governor.

The Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) held the governorship but the party's candidate Angel Aguirre is set for a tough fight with the Institutional Revolution Party (PRI) candidate Manuel Añorve.

The battle is seen as a potential pointer to the 2012 elections and big hitters from both the PRI and PRD have visited the state to aid their respective party. Indeed, there have even been complaints about the level of outside influence.

The PRD have complained about Enrique Peña Nieto's role in the campaign. Peña Nieto is likely to be the PRI candidate in 2012 and appeared on various television adverts in support of Añorve. In one (see below), Peña Nieto is joined by Jorge Campos, former national team goalkeeper, and ranchero singer Joan Sebastian.

Santiago Creel, senator from the National Action Party (PAN), didn't hold back in criticising what he calls the PRI's "dirty campaign" either. Creel accused the PRI of carrying out "the same old practices from the old regime," including channeling money to pressure people into voting and getting campaign funds from PRI state governors around the country.

Mexico City mayor and likely PRD candidate in 2012, Marcelo Ebrard has also recently visited Guerrero to garner support for his party.

The PAN have little chance in Guerrero and haven't been as active as other parties in bringing political heavyweights to the states.

A poll from El Universal newspaper from January 13 suggests that PRD candidate Aguirre is ahead of Prista Añorve by six percentage points. In the same poll, the PAN candidate only got four percent of the vote.

Ebrard: Don't rule left out

The widespread consensus in the Mexican media is that the left wing will find the 2012 presidential election hard going unless a coalition can be formed like in 2006.

The biggest problem is that Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard and Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) have both indicated their willingness to run for the presidency which would likely hamper the left's shot at power.

The Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) leadership is due to change in March and Ebrard pleaded for unity and a programme to bring the left together in a speech Saturday in Mexico City.

Not wanting to talk much about the party's problems, apart from his rallying cry for unity, Ebrard instead attacked the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and the National Action Party (PAN) of President Felipe Calderon. Ebrard said that Mexico is the country with least growth in Latin America over the last 20 years and laid the blame squarely at those that have held power.

"That means that our country has an increased number of poor people every year and that we are a country in which the majority can't prosper," said the Mexico City mayor.

Ebrard said Brazil's leftist government had helped 21 million climb out of poverty over the last eight years in which time poverty in Mexico has risen.

Ebrard laid into the PRI saying, "It's more of the same." He added that the PRI, which ruled Mexico for 71 years, is trying to spread fear in order that people fall into the trap: "Better the bad that you know than the good that is to yet to be known."

In an attack that has caused fierce criticism from the PRI, Ebrard stated that the states the the PRI govern are the most violent and cited Guerrero and Chihuahua as examples.

In the face what Ebrard deems the PRI's fearmonging, the 51-year-old said the left should respond with care.

"It's our moment and our obligation and we have to be prepared for it," said Ebrard. "We're the ones that have to move this forward."

Of the 2012 elections, Ebrard said he had no problem with AMLO and that it is those that are opposed to the left that are heavily promoting the idea. AMLO seems to think that he and Ebrard can work together to knock what he calls "the mafia" out of office.

Whether Ebrard will agree is a completely different matter.

Elections could give pointers for 2012

With six elections for state governorships, 116 local congress elections and 222 mayoral positions up for grabs in seven Mexican states in 2011, this year should give an excellent early idea of which parties are likely to be well positioned for the 2012 presidential election.

Luisa María de Guadalupe Calderón Hinojosa, sister of President Felipe Calderon may be the PAN’s upset candidate for Michaocan Governor.
The Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) looks in a strong position going into the year, with Enrique Peña Nieto, the handsome and charismatic young current governor of Estado de Mexico, leading the pack of political hopefuls for an anticipated assault on the presidency. The election of his successor could be a good indication of the lie of the political landscape as the Estado de Mexico includes a large part of Mexico City’s suburbs and has more than ten million inhabitants, roughly 13 percent of the country’s population.

In western Mexico, the election for the governorship of Guerrero on January 30 threatens to unseat the grip of the Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) on the state. The increased violence in Guerrero in recent years will surely play an important role too.

The big test for the left-of-center PRD comes in the state of Michoacan on November 13, when a new governor and 113 municipal mayors will be voted in. The state has generated negative headlines over the last few months because of clashes between the police and members of the Familia Michoacana drug cartel. To make matters worse, the current governor’s brother has been found guilty of having links to drug traffickers. Interestingly, President Felipe Calderon’s sister is widely tipped to be in the running for the governorship of Michoacan for the National Action Party (PAN).

As usual, alliances will play a big part. The PRI are likely to team up with the Green Party (PVEM) and other small parties but political commentators suggest that the conservative National Action Party (PAN) – Calderon’s party – could again collaborate with the PRD to try and oust the PRI. This unlikely left-right strategy has not been successful in other states but both parties believe it could represent their best chance in certain states where the PRI have traditionally been very strong. One such state is Jalisco’s neighboring Nayarit, which has just below one percent of the total population of the country.

2011 elections:

January 30: Guerrero
Governor, Congress and Mayoral. Incumbent Governor: Zeferino Torreblanca (PRD)

February 6: Baja California Sur
Governor. Incumbent: Narciso Agundez (PRD)

July 3: Coahuila
Governor and Congress. Incumbent: Humberto Moreira (PRI)

July 3: Nayarit
Governor, Congress and Mayoral. Incumbent: Ney Gonzalez (PRI)

July 3: Mexico State
Governor. Incumbent: Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI)

July 3 : Hidalgo
Mayoral

November 13: Michoacan
Governor, Congress and Mayoral. Incumbent: Leonel Godoy (PRD)

Congressman wins dubious award

One member of Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies has hit the headlines for all the wrong reasons, with thousands of messages on Twitter aimed squarely at his presumed laziness.
[Jorge Kahwagi: celebrity, publisher, prize fighter and now... Mexico’s laziest congressman.]

Jorge Kahwagi: celebrity, publisher, prize fighter and now... Mexico’s laziest congressman.
Jorge Kahwagi, president of the Partido Nueva Alianza (PANAL), didn’t propose a single initiative in the 35 sessions of the house between September 1 and December 15. Not only that, Kahwagi made news for having the worst attendance rate of all the deputies. He attended the chamber a grand total of once.

For his arduous work, former boxer Kahwagi received a gross (in both meanings of the word, some would say) total of 800,000 pesos.

To be fair, 42-year-old Kahwagi had asked special permission not to attend due to outside commitments including being ill and having pending legal matters.

In Mexico’s political system that includes election by proportional representation, the PANAL were awarded nine seats back in 2006 having received 4.5 percent of the national vote. With no constituency baying for action on a long list of issues, Kahwagi quietly went about his business outside of the house and no other member even questioned his poor attendance.

A larger than life figure, Kahwagi is never far away from controversy.

Born to a prominent Mexican businessman, Kahwagi boxed while taking a law degree at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) in Mexico City and had an incredible amateur record. He won 43 fights, 38 by way of knockout. Turning professional at the advanced age of 33 in 2001, Kahwagi won all ten of his professional bouts capturing the WBC International Championship and Latin American WBC cruiserweight belt. Internet forums speculate than some of Kahwagi’s fights may have been fixed, although no official news sources carry the same allegations.

After retiring from the sport in 2004, Kahwagi entered the Big Brother television program that has launched many celebrity careers. Honest about his intentions to move his political career forward, Kahwagi used the exposure to court a new party and ditched the Green Party (PVEM) in favor of the PANAL.

Kahwagi is also famous for a fight he had with wrestler Cibernetico, his love affairs and being the general director of the La Cronica de Hoy newspaper.

New names and faces in Calderon’s cabinet

Mexican President Felipe Calderon has shuffled his cabinet early in 2011 as election maneuvering leading up to the 2012 presidential election begins.

Juan Molinar resigned from his post as Secretary of Communications and Transportation to take up the job of Secretary of Elections for Calderon’s National Action Party (PAN). This year sees key elections for governors in six states, making it an important year for consolidation before 2012.

In Molinar’s place comes Harvard-educated economist Dionisio Perez Jacome, who is not a member of the PAN but was Calderon’s close advisor during the 2006 presidential campaign and knew the current president from their days at the Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico (ITAM). Perez Jacome will be tasked with overseeing a more competitive environment in the communications and transport sectors so that more people have access to the internet, telephone and other services on better terms.

Calderon’s former professor Georgina Kessel moves from Secretary of Energy to the head up the National Bank of Public Works and Services (Banobras). In her place comes Yale-educated Jose Antonio Meade.

Calderon has given Meade the huge challenge of “driving a roots up transformation” of Mexican oil monopoly Pemex and the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE), to “eliminate privileges and guaranteeing transparency.”

The job as the president’s personal secretary, traditionally an important position in Mexican politics, has been handed to Gil Zuarth, born in 1977. Zuarth will be responsible for managing Calderon’s agenda.

Calderon said the new faces “will permit us to move forward this 2011 with renewed impetus.”

Many commentators are suggesting Calderon has used the shuffle to bring in his close confidents. Now in the last third of his presidency, he will be hoping to salvage a legacy from his term in office. At present the most prominent feature has been his decision to confront drug cartels head on. The result has been an upsurge in violent deaths.

Left wing in Mexico mirrors US Tea Party?

It may seem surreal at first glance to suggest there are similarities between the Tea Party and the movement of Mexico’s left-wing political maverick Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO). The former supports socially conservative values and rolling back the state in the United States and the latter is a Mexican socialist intent on creating a people’s government.

Nevertheless, the two movements have a common thread: both are anti status quo and rally against the political establishment on their respective side of the border via a grassroots movement.

The rapidly developing Tea Party feeds ravenously off what it perceives as the rotten Washington political corpse and they organize themselves from the bottom up.

Although the end goal is widely different, Lopez Obrador is hoping to feed the flames of political discontent within Mexico and present himself as the man with the alternative agenda to bring hope to the nation. Lest we forget, this is a man who was on the doorstep of the presidential palace in 2006 before the door was slammed in his face. Lopez Obrador lost by less than 250,000 votes. He cried foul, saying the election was corrupt and swore himself in as the “Legitimate President.” He then held mass protests in Mexico City, bringing millions out onto the streets.

In hindsight, that was a bad decision.

“What was he playing after the election? Why didn’t he just let it slide and focus on the next one?” are two common responses when you ask Mexicans about AMLO.

Support for AMLO dropped like a lead balloon as he became increasingly isolated politically.

Since then, AMLO has worked and traveled harder and further than perhaps any other Mexican politician and is fronting a new movement that is hoping to win the presidency in 2012.

In Guadalajara late last year to personally receive an update of how “the movement” is progressing in Jalisco, AMLO seemed to have thrown off the shackles of any constraint he may have felt in representing a broad liberal/left wing coalition in 2006 and now speaks directly to his core supporters. He calls the Mexican elite a mafia, slams neoliberalism, the mainstream media and says the National Action Party (PAN) and the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) are one and the same and govern in the interest of a minority while the majority of Mexican citizens remain poor. AMLO is also highly critical of the left-wing Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) – under whose banner he ran for president – and accuses its leaders of treason for creating political alliances with the PAN in several Mexican states.

The aim of AMLO’s movement in the buildup to 2012 is to create a nationwide network of supporters. He wants one representative for each of the 2,438 municipalities in the country and then a further representative for each neighborhood in the municipality. With that, he believes, other parties won’t be able to steal the 2012 election from him.

To achieve this, Lopez Obrador has toured the country continually since 2006, keeping his core supporters motivated and trying to generate new ones. He arrived in Guadalajara on a Saturday afternoon during his last visit after a similar event in Colima in the morning. Internet savvy, AMLO is also one of the most fervent users of Facebook and Twitter in Mexican politics. A YouTube speech is updated on a weekly basis to inform supporters. In addition, he has set up a free newspaper called “Regeneracion,” which his network of supporters distribute, as he says, to balance the negative image he receives from the mainstream media.

The result of the work has clearly rejuvenated his support. To many, AMLO is like a religious figure. The assembled light up when he enters the room in Guadalajara and spark into chants such as, “It’s an honor to be with Obrador,” and the ever popular “presidente, presidente.”

AMLO keeps his faith close to his chest although he is widely believed to be a Presbyterian. His rhetoric has a subtle religious tone too, not just directed at overturning the status quo. Getting people to “wake up,” give them “hope” and “be honest” is part of AMLO’s appeal.

Take this quote from his speech in Guadalajara: “We are fighting for our moral and cultural values. There are so many Mexicans who wake up and think they having nothing to live for. They live without hope.”

The basis of the hope spelled out in his books is that there is no need for Mexicans to be poor — just look at the wealth of natural resources abundant in the country, he points out.

Many of AMLO’s supporters are clearly living on the bread line and are eager to thank him for his efforts on their behalf. But the news during his recent trip to Guadalajara wasn’t entirely good. Many of his workers around the state reported difficulties in garnering new support.

AMLO asked for a redoubling of efforts and for every one of his supporters to convert five others. He calculates that he has the support of 20 percent of Mexicans at present and that if each one of those converts five others he can win the presidency in 2012.

The problem is that AMLO’s name is, rightly or wrongly, tainted in the eyes of many Mexicans. The PRD has a new darling who is likely to be given a shot at the presidency: Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard. If both end up running in 2012, the result is very likely to cause a big split of the left wing, liberal vote in Mexico, which would hand power to either the PRI or the ruling PAN.

In that lies a lesson that the Tea Party might be wise to heed: don’t stray too far away from the Republicans or the consequences may come back to bite.