Left has big problem selecting candidate as AMLO leaves PRD

The left-wing Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) is hoping to be swept to power in 2012 off the back of disillusionment with the National Action Party (PAN) and the stigma that is still attached to the Party of the Institutional Revolution (PRI) after decades of one-party rule.

A big problem remains. Whereas the PAN doesn’t seem to have a clear-cut candidate, the PRD has two. That could be equally, if not more, damaging to the party’s hopes.

A recent Mitofsky poll PRD supporters shows former presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador with a clear lead over Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard – 69.8 percent to 23.3 percent.

Those figures don’t tell the whole story. The same poll shows Lopez Obrador with a minus-18.2 opinion reading from Mexicans interviewed with a range of political affiliations. In other words, Lopez Obrador is loved on the left but despised by many others and is unlikely to be able to reach out to undecided Mexicans, many of whom view him as a bad loser for continually contesting the result of the 2006 election. Perhaps that is the reason the Mexican Spanish-language press believe Ebrard is a shoe-in for the candidacy, despite Lopez Obrador’s support among PRD members. Also, Lopez Obrador doesn’t see eye-to-eye with current PRD leaders, especially over alliances with the PAN in certain states.

This week, Lopez Obrador resigned from the party over the alliance issues and problems with the leadership, although he stresses it is a temporary measure.

“It’s something we should be worried about,” said Ebrard on his rival’s resignation. “Let’s see if we can come up with an agreement soon. I hope so.”

Ebrard realizes that the left-wing vote would be split if the two ran against each other. Only a single left-wing candidate has a realistic chance of beating the resurgent PRI.

Lopez Obrador knows it too: “At the right moment will we come to an agreement about who is better placed (to run for the candidacy). That’s the pact we have. I’m not seeking power for power’s sake, I’m not driven by personal ambition. I fight for ideals and for principles.”

Publicly, Ebrard and Lopez Obrador say they are friends. In 2000, Ebrard stepped aside in the election for Mexico City mayor to leave the door open for Lopez Obrador.
This time around the friendship may be severely tested if one of the two refuses to step aside.