Left has big problem selecting candidate as AMLO leaves PRD

The left-wing Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) is hoping to be swept to power in 2012 off the back of disillusionment with the National Action Party (PAN) and the stigma that is still attached to the Party of the Institutional Revolution (PRI) after decades of one-party rule.

A big problem remains. Whereas the PAN doesn’t seem to have a clear-cut candidate, the PRD has two. That could be equally, if not more, damaging to the party’s hopes.

A recent Mitofsky poll PRD supporters shows former presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador with a clear lead over Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard – 69.8 percent to 23.3 percent.

Those figures don’t tell the whole story. The same poll shows Lopez Obrador with a minus-18.2 opinion reading from Mexicans interviewed with a range of political affiliations. In other words, Lopez Obrador is loved on the left but despised by many others and is unlikely to be able to reach out to undecided Mexicans, many of whom view him as a bad loser for continually contesting the result of the 2006 election. Perhaps that is the reason the Mexican Spanish-language press believe Ebrard is a shoe-in for the candidacy, despite Lopez Obrador’s support among PRD members. Also, Lopez Obrador doesn’t see eye-to-eye with current PRD leaders, especially over alliances with the PAN in certain states.

This week, Lopez Obrador resigned from the party over the alliance issues and problems with the leadership, although he stresses it is a temporary measure.

“It’s something we should be worried about,” said Ebrard on his rival’s resignation. “Let’s see if we can come up with an agreement soon. I hope so.”

Ebrard realizes that the left-wing vote would be split if the two ran against each other. Only a single left-wing candidate has a realistic chance of beating the resurgent PRI.

Lopez Obrador knows it too: “At the right moment will we come to an agreement about who is better placed (to run for the candidacy). That’s the pact we have. I’m not seeking power for power’s sake, I’m not driven by personal ambition. I fight for ideals and for principles.”

Publicly, Ebrard and Lopez Obrador say they are friends. In 2000, Ebrard stepped aside in the election for Mexico City mayor to leave the door open for Lopez Obrador.
This time around the friendship may be severely tested if one of the two refuses to step aside.

Jalisco governor throws his hat into the ring

It’s clear that President Felipe Calderon’s National Action Party (PAN) has no obvious presidential candidate for the 2012 election. One man this week raised his voice: “I can beat Peña Nieto!”

The voice was that of Jalisco Governor Emilio Gonzalez at a closed meeting of party heavyweights in Mexico City. Enrique Peña Nieto is the man many believe has the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) candidature already in the bag, and who is the frontrunner to be the next president, according to a recent Mitofsky poll.

That Gonzalez can make a challenge must be in doubt. He has been a polemic governor. Disputes with the Universidad de Guadalajara, comments about gay marriages making him “sick” and his fondness for tequila (some refer to him ‘Etilio’), amid other scandals, have turned many sectors of Jalisco society against him.

In the Mexico City meeting, Gonzalez made light of the drunk tag and said in Jalisco it was compulsory to drink tequila. Of his frequent blunders in speeches, Gonzalez said he has frequently said “pendejadas,” or stupid things, but that he is honest and no one can accuse him of being corrupt.

Combined with Gonzalez’s nationwide TV commercials that are being investigated for violating the constitution, it seems safe to assume the deeply religious politician born in Lagos de Moreno has now “unofficially” confirmed he would like the PAN nomination. Gonzalez will hope the violence in Jalisco remains relatively subdued and that a successful Pan American Games in October can propel him onto the national stage.

“I’m not discounting myself but I’m not confirming anything either,” said Gonzalez for the umpteenth time last Sunday in Veracruz, a day after lauding himself in the private Mexico City meeting.

It’s to Gonzalez’s advantage that the PAN has no clear-cut candidate but those who have already made their intent to run public seem to have a clear lead. A Mitofsky poll of PAN members from January 30 shows Gonzalez with plenty of work to do. The poll puts Senator Santiago Creel on 40 percentage points, ahead of PAN parliamentary coordinator Josefina Vazquez on 16.8 percent. Gonzalez received a paltry 2.5 percent support from his fellow Panistas.

Speech in which Gonzalez appears to be drunk while talking to businessmen and women and prominent members of the Catholic Church (in Spanish, contains swearing):

BCS victory for PAN

President Felipe Calderon´s National Action Party (PAN) won the governorship of Baja California Sur Sunday, February 6 after 12 years of Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) rule.

PAN candidate Marco Covarrubias won with 40 percent of the vote with the Institutional Revolution Party´s (PRI) Ricardo Barrosos in second place with 34 percent. The PRD won 21 percent of the vote.

The result, in Mexico´s least populated state, was something of a surprise following the result in Guerrero the week before where the PRD won after the PAN candidate stepped aside. Perhaps the fact that Covarrubias used to be a member of the PRD helps to explain the result.

The next elections in Mexico will take place as follows:

July 3: Coahuila
Governor and Congress. Incumbent: Humberto Moreira (PRI)

July 3: Nayarit
Governor, Congress and Mayoral. Incumbent: Ney Gonzalez (PRI)

July 3: Mexico State
Governor. Incumbent: Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI)

July 3 : Hidalgo
Mayoral

November 13: Michoacan
Governor, Congress and Mayoral. Incumbent: Leonel Godoy (PRD)