Number one presidential contender: Peña Nieto

There’s only one major political party in Mexico that has a shoe-in presidential candidate for 2012 and he has something of the John F. Kennedy about him, at least in the looks department.

Just seven years ago Institutional Revolution Party (PRI) member Enrique Peña Nieto was a small time, baby-faced local politician in the Estado de Mexico. His rise since then has been meteoric. A recent Mitosfsky study showed 90 percent of Mexicans know who he is and 51 percent said they would vote for him if it was a straight race between him, Santiago Creel (PAN) and Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (PRD), currently the most popular candidates for the other two main parties.

“Pres-i-den-te, Pres-i-den-te,” rings out when Peña Nieto speaks in front of his supporters.

That is testament to his slick Public Relations drive aided by 44-year-old Peña Nieto’s easy on the eye appearance and the publicity surrounding his recent marriage to high profile soap star Angélica Rivera, commonly known as “La Gaviota.” Estado de Mexico Governor Peña Nieto is always well groomed, always smiling and regularly appears in magazines and on national television. He already employs people to manage his Facebook and Twitter accounts and regularly uploads videos to YouTube.

Peña Nieto’s youth brings the PRI back as a real political force after it was booted out of office after 71 years of tyrannical rule in 2000. Voters are much more likely to believe 44-year-old Peña Nieto when he says that the party has changed than someone more associated with the regime of old. The party itself seems to be well aware of that fact. Political enemies say the party has simply changed its guise and remains the same underneath.

“Like a junk product, like a soap opera,” is Lopez Obrador’s perception of the Peña Nieto package.

Outside of the smiling images and fairytail marriages, father-of-three Peña Nieto has been involved in a certain amount of controversy.

The “Peña Nieto Law” gained nationwide notorioty. It was born out of the fear that when the next governor’s election takes place in the Estado de Mexico on July 3, the PAN and left wing PRD will field a joint candidate to oust the PRI. Knowing how important it is to him that the PRI win in the Estado de Mexico, Peña Nieto introduced the law intending to effectively ban such alliances although it seems to have had little effect. The PAN and PRD are still considering an alliance aimed at getting rid of “authoritarianism, cronyism and cover-ups,” according to Gustavo Madero the national leader of the PAN. The PRI has controled the Estado de Mexico for 82 years.

Socially controversial was the case of Agustin Estrada who used to run a center for disabled children in the Estado de Mexico. In 2007 he dressed as a woman to perform in a musical. The next day he was sacked. Estrada currently resides abroad in political asylum after he made complaints against the government and authorities and received death threats. He also endured prison, raped and beaten on multiple occasions; Estrada said that Peña Nieto insulted him when he personally asked the governor for help to get his job back. Amnesty International and the United Nations have both condemned the treatment of Estrada by state and local authorities in the Estado de Mexico. Ironically, Estrada financially backed Peña Nieto’s campaign to be state governor.

There has also been a controversy about putting a light and sound show close to the famous Teotihuacan pyramids. Peña Nieto gave the go ahead and refused to back down while others protested that the work damaged the pyramids.

An argument rages on internet forums about whether the politician had anything to do with his first wife’s death in 2007. The question has also been asked in the Estado de Mexico Congress, no doubt leaving a bad taste in the mouths of many. In a presidential election campaign though such ugly allegations could be brought up and Peña Nieto must be prepared, especially if the campaign turn nasty. The official and widely accepted version of events is that she had a heart attack following an epileptic fit.

On the positive side, Peña Nieto has been praised for his bipartisanship for working with Mexico City’s PRD Mayor Marcelo Ebrard in coming to common solutions in what is essentially the same conurbation.

Peña Nieto portrays himself as a defender of energy reform, the development of the country’s economy and has released an eleven-point plan to combat security problems in the country.

The next big test is making sure that the PRI candidate wins the Estado de Mexico election in July. A win would provide much momentum and an approval of the work Peña Nieto has done. Defeat would certainly damage the momentum of the most likely next Mexican president.

Left has big problem selecting candidate as AMLO leaves PRD

The left-wing Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) is hoping to be swept to power in 2012 off the back of disillusionment with the National Action Party (PAN) and the stigma that is still attached to the Party of the Institutional Revolution (PRI) after decades of one-party rule.

A big problem remains. Whereas the PAN doesn’t seem to have a clear-cut candidate, the PRD has two. That could be equally, if not more, damaging to the party’s hopes.

A recent Mitofsky poll PRD supporters shows former presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador with a clear lead over Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard – 69.8 percent to 23.3 percent.

Those figures don’t tell the whole story. The same poll shows Lopez Obrador with a minus-18.2 opinion reading from Mexicans interviewed with a range of political affiliations. In other words, Lopez Obrador is loved on the left but despised by many others and is unlikely to be able to reach out to undecided Mexicans, many of whom view him as a bad loser for continually contesting the result of the 2006 election. Perhaps that is the reason the Mexican Spanish-language press believe Ebrard is a shoe-in for the candidacy, despite Lopez Obrador’s support among PRD members. Also, Lopez Obrador doesn’t see eye-to-eye with current PRD leaders, especially over alliances with the PAN in certain states.

This week, Lopez Obrador resigned from the party over the alliance issues and problems with the leadership, although he stresses it is a temporary measure.

“It’s something we should be worried about,” said Ebrard on his rival’s resignation. “Let’s see if we can come up with an agreement soon. I hope so.”

Ebrard realizes that the left-wing vote would be split if the two ran against each other. Only a single left-wing candidate has a realistic chance of beating the resurgent PRI.

Lopez Obrador knows it too: “At the right moment will we come to an agreement about who is better placed (to run for the candidacy). That’s the pact we have. I’m not seeking power for power’s sake, I’m not driven by personal ambition. I fight for ideals and for principles.”

Publicly, Ebrard and Lopez Obrador say they are friends. In 2000, Ebrard stepped aside in the election for Mexico City mayor to leave the door open for Lopez Obrador.
This time around the friendship may be severely tested if one of the two refuses to step aside.

Jalisco governor throws his hat into the ring

It’s clear that President Felipe Calderon’s National Action Party (PAN) has no obvious presidential candidate for the 2012 election. One man this week raised his voice: “I can beat Peña Nieto!”

The voice was that of Jalisco Governor Emilio Gonzalez at a closed meeting of party heavyweights in Mexico City. Enrique Peña Nieto is the man many believe has the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) candidature already in the bag, and who is the frontrunner to be the next president, according to a recent Mitofsky poll.

That Gonzalez can make a challenge must be in doubt. He has been a polemic governor. Disputes with the Universidad de Guadalajara, comments about gay marriages making him “sick” and his fondness for tequila (some refer to him ‘Etilio’), amid other scandals, have turned many sectors of Jalisco society against him.

In the Mexico City meeting, Gonzalez made light of the drunk tag and said in Jalisco it was compulsory to drink tequila. Of his frequent blunders in speeches, Gonzalez said he has frequently said “pendejadas,” or stupid things, but that he is honest and no one can accuse him of being corrupt.

Combined with Gonzalez’s nationwide TV commercials that are being investigated for violating the constitution, it seems safe to assume the deeply religious politician born in Lagos de Moreno has now “unofficially” confirmed he would like the PAN nomination. Gonzalez will hope the violence in Jalisco remains relatively subdued and that a successful Pan American Games in October can propel him onto the national stage.

“I’m not discounting myself but I’m not confirming anything either,” said Gonzalez for the umpteenth time last Sunday in Veracruz, a day after lauding himself in the private Mexico City meeting.

It’s to Gonzalez’s advantage that the PAN has no clear-cut candidate but those who have already made their intent to run public seem to have a clear lead. A Mitofsky poll of PAN members from January 30 shows Gonzalez with plenty of work to do. The poll puts Senator Santiago Creel on 40 percentage points, ahead of PAN parliamentary coordinator Josefina Vazquez on 16.8 percent. Gonzalez received a paltry 2.5 percent support from his fellow Panistas.

Speech in which Gonzalez appears to be drunk while talking to businessmen and women and prominent members of the Catholic Church (in Spanish, contains swearing):

BCS victory for PAN

President Felipe Calderon´s National Action Party (PAN) won the governorship of Baja California Sur Sunday, February 6 after 12 years of Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) rule.

PAN candidate Marco Covarrubias won with 40 percent of the vote with the Institutional Revolution Party´s (PRI) Ricardo Barrosos in second place with 34 percent. The PRD won 21 percent of the vote.

The result, in Mexico´s least populated state, was something of a surprise following the result in Guerrero the week before where the PRD won after the PAN candidate stepped aside. Perhaps the fact that Covarrubias used to be a member of the PRD helps to explain the result.

The next elections in Mexico will take place as follows:

July 3: Coahuila
Governor and Congress. Incumbent: Humberto Moreira (PRI)

July 3: Nayarit
Governor, Congress and Mayoral. Incumbent: Ney Gonzalez (PRI)

July 3: Mexico State
Governor. Incumbent: Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI)

July 3 : Hidalgo
Mayoral

November 13: Michoacan
Governor, Congress and Mayoral. Incumbent: Leonel Godoy (PRD)

Left wing wins in Guerrero

In the first state governor election of the year in south-western state of Guerrero, the left-wing Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD)-led coalition candidate Angel Aguirre secured victory against the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) faction in a bitterly fought campaign.

The left wing coalition won by over 13 percentage points to hold onto the state governorship. Thankfully, there were no major violent incidences in a state that has been dogged this year by fighting between rival drug cartels.

Perhaps the biggest story of the election was the pitiful performance of the National Action Party (PAN), of president Felipe Calderon, which received less than two percent of the vote after its candidate decided to back the PRD in the week before the vote. Even before the U-turn, Spanish-language national newspaper El Universal only had the party at 4 percent.

PRI candidate Manuel Añorve cried foul and signalled he would contest the decision.
“The dirty war in this election can’t and shouldn’t be left unpunished,” Añorve told the press. Añorve charged the PRD with “ buying votes” and “plundering.” Ironically, the complaints were similar to those of PRD-candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador after the 2006 presidential election.

Mexico City mayor Marcelo Ebrard was delighted with the victory and signaled it would be the first of many. He is in prime position to be the left wing candidate in 2012.

“This demonstrates that the people can overcome the PRI apparatus,” said Ebrard. “They overcame the intentions of the PRI.”

Immediately after the result the PRI tried to distance Enrique Peña Nieto, the governor of the Estado de Mexico and shoe-in candidate for the PRI in 2012, from the contest even though he was prominent in supporting Añorve.

Instead, the PRI said citizens of Mexico City should ask Ebrard to justify the alleged money that made its way to Guerrero from city coffers. Various Pristas said the outcome would be different come 2011.

On February 6 citizens of PRD-run Baja California go to the polls.

PRD looks to have edge in Guerrero

Early vote counting in the violence-affected state of Guerrero suggests the left-wing PRD-led coalition has secured an important victory against the PRI coalition.

At 7:20 p.m. the PRD had 52.8 % of the votes counted compared to 46 % for the PRI.

Both the PRI candidate Manuel Añorve and the PRD candidate Ángel Aguirre have declared themselves victorious.

A Mitosvky exit polls also suggested that PRD candidate is the preferred candidate as have three other separate pollster companies.

Full results from the hard fought campaign are due to be announced tomorrow (Monday) evening.

Dirty campaign as Guerrero sets itself for election

With the backdrop of over 80 drug-cartel related deaths so far this year, citizens of Guerrero go to the polls Sunday, January 30 to elect a new governor.

The Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) held the governorship but the party's candidate Angel Aguirre is set for a tough fight with the Institutional Revolution Party (PRI) candidate Manuel Añorve.

The battle is seen as a potential pointer to the 2012 elections and big hitters from both the PRI and PRD have visited the state to aid their respective party. Indeed, there have even been complaints about the level of outside influence.

The PRD have complained about Enrique Peña Nieto's role in the campaign. Peña Nieto is likely to be the PRI candidate in 2012 and appeared on various television adverts in support of Añorve. In one (see below), Peña Nieto is joined by Jorge Campos, former national team goalkeeper, and ranchero singer Joan Sebastian.

Santiago Creel, senator from the National Action Party (PAN), didn't hold back in criticising what he calls the PRI's "dirty campaign" either. Creel accused the PRI of carrying out "the same old practices from the old regime," including channeling money to pressure people into voting and getting campaign funds from PRI state governors around the country.

Mexico City mayor and likely PRD candidate in 2012, Marcelo Ebrard has also recently visited Guerrero to garner support for his party.

The PAN have little chance in Guerrero and haven't been as active as other parties in bringing political heavyweights to the states.

A poll from El Universal newspaper from January 13 suggests that PRD candidate Aguirre is ahead of Prista Añorve by six percentage points. In the same poll, the PAN candidate only got four percent of the vote.