Left wing wins in Guerrero

In the first state governor election of the year in south-western state of Guerrero, the left-wing Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD)-led coalition candidate Angel Aguirre secured victory against the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) faction in a bitterly fought campaign.

The left wing coalition won by over 13 percentage points to hold onto the state governorship. Thankfully, there were no major violent incidences in a state that has been dogged this year by fighting between rival drug cartels.

Perhaps the biggest story of the election was the pitiful performance of the National Action Party (PAN), of president Felipe Calderon, which received less than two percent of the vote after its candidate decided to back the PRD in the week before the vote. Even before the U-turn, Spanish-language national newspaper El Universal only had the party at 4 percent.

PRI candidate Manuel Añorve cried foul and signalled he would contest the decision.
“The dirty war in this election can’t and shouldn’t be left unpunished,” Añorve told the press. Añorve charged the PRD with “ buying votes” and “plundering.” Ironically, the complaints were similar to those of PRD-candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador after the 2006 presidential election.

Mexico City mayor Marcelo Ebrard was delighted with the victory and signaled it would be the first of many. He is in prime position to be the left wing candidate in 2012.

“This demonstrates that the people can overcome the PRI apparatus,” said Ebrard. “They overcame the intentions of the PRI.”

Immediately after the result the PRI tried to distance Enrique Peña Nieto, the governor of the Estado de Mexico and shoe-in candidate for the PRI in 2012, from the contest even though he was prominent in supporting Añorve.

Instead, the PRI said citizens of Mexico City should ask Ebrard to justify the alleged money that made its way to Guerrero from city coffers. Various Pristas said the outcome would be different come 2011.

On February 6 citizens of PRD-run Baja California go to the polls.

PRD looks to have edge in Guerrero

Early vote counting in the violence-affected state of Guerrero suggests the left-wing PRD-led coalition has secured an important victory against the PRI coalition.

At 7:20 p.m. the PRD had 52.8 % of the votes counted compared to 46 % for the PRI.

Both the PRI candidate Manuel Añorve and the PRD candidate Ángel Aguirre have declared themselves victorious.

A Mitosvky exit polls also suggested that PRD candidate is the preferred candidate as have three other separate pollster companies.

Full results from the hard fought campaign are due to be announced tomorrow (Monday) evening.

Dirty campaign as Guerrero sets itself for election

With the backdrop of over 80 drug-cartel related deaths so far this year, citizens of Guerrero go to the polls Sunday, January 30 to elect a new governor.

The Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) held the governorship but the party's candidate Angel Aguirre is set for a tough fight with the Institutional Revolution Party (PRI) candidate Manuel Añorve.

The battle is seen as a potential pointer to the 2012 elections and big hitters from both the PRI and PRD have visited the state to aid their respective party. Indeed, there have even been complaints about the level of outside influence.

The PRD have complained about Enrique Peña Nieto's role in the campaign. Peña Nieto is likely to be the PRI candidate in 2012 and appeared on various television adverts in support of Añorve. In one (see below), Peña Nieto is joined by Jorge Campos, former national team goalkeeper, and ranchero singer Joan Sebastian.

Santiago Creel, senator from the National Action Party (PAN), didn't hold back in criticising what he calls the PRI's "dirty campaign" either. Creel accused the PRI of carrying out "the same old practices from the old regime," including channeling money to pressure people into voting and getting campaign funds from PRI state governors around the country.

Mexico City mayor and likely PRD candidate in 2012, Marcelo Ebrard has also recently visited Guerrero to garner support for his party.

The PAN have little chance in Guerrero and haven't been as active as other parties in bringing political heavyweights to the states.

A poll from El Universal newspaper from January 13 suggests that PRD candidate Aguirre is ahead of Prista Añorve by six percentage points. In the same poll, the PAN candidate only got four percent of the vote.

Ebrard: Don't rule left out

The widespread consensus in the Mexican media is that the left wing will find the 2012 presidential election hard going unless a coalition can be formed like in 2006.

The biggest problem is that Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard and Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) have both indicated their willingness to run for the presidency which would likely hamper the left's shot at power.

The Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) leadership is due to change in March and Ebrard pleaded for unity and a programme to bring the left together in a speech Saturday in Mexico City.

Not wanting to talk much about the party's problems, apart from his rallying cry for unity, Ebrard instead attacked the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and the National Action Party (PAN) of President Felipe Calderon. Ebrard said that Mexico is the country with least growth in Latin America over the last 20 years and laid the blame squarely at those that have held power.

"That means that our country has an increased number of poor people every year and that we are a country in which the majority can't prosper," said the Mexico City mayor.

Ebrard said Brazil's leftist government had helped 21 million climb out of poverty over the last eight years in which time poverty in Mexico has risen.

Ebrard laid into the PRI saying, "It's more of the same." He added that the PRI, which ruled Mexico for 71 years, is trying to spread fear in order that people fall into the trap: "Better the bad that you know than the good that is to yet to be known."

In an attack that has caused fierce criticism from the PRI, Ebrard stated that the states the the PRI govern are the most violent and cited Guerrero and Chihuahua as examples.

In the face what Ebrard deems the PRI's fearmonging, the 51-year-old said the left should respond with care.

"It's our moment and our obligation and we have to be prepared for it," said Ebrard. "We're the ones that have to move this forward."

Of the 2012 elections, Ebrard said he had no problem with AMLO and that it is those that are opposed to the left that are heavily promoting the idea. AMLO seems to think that he and Ebrard can work together to knock what he calls "the mafia" out of office.

Whether Ebrard will agree is a completely different matter.

Elections could give pointers for 2012

With six elections for state governorships, 116 local congress elections and 222 mayoral positions up for grabs in seven Mexican states in 2011, this year should give an excellent early idea of which parties are likely to be well positioned for the 2012 presidential election.

Luisa María de Guadalupe Calderón Hinojosa, sister of President Felipe Calderon may be the PAN’s upset candidate for Michaocan Governor.
The Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) looks in a strong position going into the year, with Enrique Peña Nieto, the handsome and charismatic young current governor of Estado de Mexico, leading the pack of political hopefuls for an anticipated assault on the presidency. The election of his successor could be a good indication of the lie of the political landscape as the Estado de Mexico includes a large part of Mexico City’s suburbs and has more than ten million inhabitants, roughly 13 percent of the country’s population.

In western Mexico, the election for the governorship of Guerrero on January 30 threatens to unseat the grip of the Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) on the state. The increased violence in Guerrero in recent years will surely play an important role too.

The big test for the left-of-center PRD comes in the state of Michoacan on November 13, when a new governor and 113 municipal mayors will be voted in. The state has generated negative headlines over the last few months because of clashes between the police and members of the Familia Michoacana drug cartel. To make matters worse, the current governor’s brother has been found guilty of having links to drug traffickers. Interestingly, President Felipe Calderon’s sister is widely tipped to be in the running for the governorship of Michoacan for the National Action Party (PAN).

As usual, alliances will play a big part. The PRI are likely to team up with the Green Party (PVEM) and other small parties but political commentators suggest that the conservative National Action Party (PAN) – Calderon’s party – could again collaborate with the PRD to try and oust the PRI. This unlikely left-right strategy has not been successful in other states but both parties believe it could represent their best chance in certain states where the PRI have traditionally been very strong. One such state is Jalisco’s neighboring Nayarit, which has just below one percent of the total population of the country.

2011 elections:

January 30: Guerrero
Governor, Congress and Mayoral. Incumbent Governor: Zeferino Torreblanca (PRD)

February 6: Baja California Sur
Governor. Incumbent: Narciso Agundez (PRD)

July 3: Coahuila
Governor and Congress. Incumbent: Humberto Moreira (PRI)

July 3: Nayarit
Governor, Congress and Mayoral. Incumbent: Ney Gonzalez (PRI)

July 3: Mexico State
Governor. Incumbent: Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI)

July 3 : Hidalgo
Mayoral

November 13: Michoacan
Governor, Congress and Mayoral. Incumbent: Leonel Godoy (PRD)

Congressman wins dubious award

One member of Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies has hit the headlines for all the wrong reasons, with thousands of messages on Twitter aimed squarely at his presumed laziness.
[Jorge Kahwagi: celebrity, publisher, prize fighter and now... Mexico’s laziest congressman.]

Jorge Kahwagi: celebrity, publisher, prize fighter and now... Mexico’s laziest congressman.
Jorge Kahwagi, president of the Partido Nueva Alianza (PANAL), didn’t propose a single initiative in the 35 sessions of the house between September 1 and December 15. Not only that, Kahwagi made news for having the worst attendance rate of all the deputies. He attended the chamber a grand total of once.

For his arduous work, former boxer Kahwagi received a gross (in both meanings of the word, some would say) total of 800,000 pesos.

To be fair, 42-year-old Kahwagi had asked special permission not to attend due to outside commitments including being ill and having pending legal matters.

In Mexico’s political system that includes election by proportional representation, the PANAL were awarded nine seats back in 2006 having received 4.5 percent of the national vote. With no constituency baying for action on a long list of issues, Kahwagi quietly went about his business outside of the house and no other member even questioned his poor attendance.

A larger than life figure, Kahwagi is never far away from controversy.

Born to a prominent Mexican businessman, Kahwagi boxed while taking a law degree at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) in Mexico City and had an incredible amateur record. He won 43 fights, 38 by way of knockout. Turning professional at the advanced age of 33 in 2001, Kahwagi won all ten of his professional bouts capturing the WBC International Championship and Latin American WBC cruiserweight belt. Internet forums speculate than some of Kahwagi’s fights may have been fixed, although no official news sources carry the same allegations.

After retiring from the sport in 2004, Kahwagi entered the Big Brother television program that has launched many celebrity careers. Honest about his intentions to move his political career forward, Kahwagi used the exposure to court a new party and ditched the Green Party (PVEM) in favor of the PANAL.

Kahwagi is also famous for a fight he had with wrestler Cibernetico, his love affairs and being the general director of the La Cronica de Hoy newspaper.

New names and faces in Calderon’s cabinet

Mexican President Felipe Calderon has shuffled his cabinet early in 2011 as election maneuvering leading up to the 2012 presidential election begins.

Juan Molinar resigned from his post as Secretary of Communications and Transportation to take up the job of Secretary of Elections for Calderon’s National Action Party (PAN). This year sees key elections for governors in six states, making it an important year for consolidation before 2012.

In Molinar’s place comes Harvard-educated economist Dionisio Perez Jacome, who is not a member of the PAN but was Calderon’s close advisor during the 2006 presidential campaign and knew the current president from their days at the Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico (ITAM). Perez Jacome will be tasked with overseeing a more competitive environment in the communications and transport sectors so that more people have access to the internet, telephone and other services on better terms.

Calderon’s former professor Georgina Kessel moves from Secretary of Energy to the head up the National Bank of Public Works and Services (Banobras). In her place comes Yale-educated Jose Antonio Meade.

Calderon has given Meade the huge challenge of “driving a roots up transformation” of Mexican oil monopoly Pemex and the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE), to “eliminate privileges and guaranteeing transparency.”

The job as the president’s personal secretary, traditionally an important position in Mexican politics, has been handed to Gil Zuarth, born in 1977. Zuarth will be responsible for managing Calderon’s agenda.

Calderon said the new faces “will permit us to move forward this 2011 with renewed impetus.”

Many commentators are suggesting Calderon has used the shuffle to bring in his close confidents. Now in the last third of his presidency, he will be hoping to salvage a legacy from his term in office. At present the most prominent feature has been his decision to confront drug cartels head on. The result has been an upsurge in violent deaths.

Left wing in Mexico mirrors US Tea Party?

It may seem surreal at first glance to suggest there are similarities between the Tea Party and the movement of Mexico’s left-wing political maverick Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO). The former supports socially conservative values and rolling back the state in the United States and the latter is a Mexican socialist intent on creating a people’s government.

Nevertheless, the two movements have a common thread: both are anti status quo and rally against the political establishment on their respective side of the border via a grassroots movement.

The rapidly developing Tea Party feeds ravenously off what it perceives as the rotten Washington political corpse and they organize themselves from the bottom up.

Although the end goal is widely different, Lopez Obrador is hoping to feed the flames of political discontent within Mexico and present himself as the man with the alternative agenda to bring hope to the nation. Lest we forget, this is a man who was on the doorstep of the presidential palace in 2006 before the door was slammed in his face. Lopez Obrador lost by less than 250,000 votes. He cried foul, saying the election was corrupt and swore himself in as the “Legitimate President.” He then held mass protests in Mexico City, bringing millions out onto the streets.

In hindsight, that was a bad decision.

“What was he playing after the election? Why didn’t he just let it slide and focus on the next one?” are two common responses when you ask Mexicans about AMLO.

Support for AMLO dropped like a lead balloon as he became increasingly isolated politically.

Since then, AMLO has worked and traveled harder and further than perhaps any other Mexican politician and is fronting a new movement that is hoping to win the presidency in 2012.

In Guadalajara late last year to personally receive an update of how “the movement” is progressing in Jalisco, AMLO seemed to have thrown off the shackles of any constraint he may have felt in representing a broad liberal/left wing coalition in 2006 and now speaks directly to his core supporters. He calls the Mexican elite a mafia, slams neoliberalism, the mainstream media and says the National Action Party (PAN) and the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) are one and the same and govern in the interest of a minority while the majority of Mexican citizens remain poor. AMLO is also highly critical of the left-wing Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) – under whose banner he ran for president – and accuses its leaders of treason for creating political alliances with the PAN in several Mexican states.

The aim of AMLO’s movement in the buildup to 2012 is to create a nationwide network of supporters. He wants one representative for each of the 2,438 municipalities in the country and then a further representative for each neighborhood in the municipality. With that, he believes, other parties won’t be able to steal the 2012 election from him.

To achieve this, Lopez Obrador has toured the country continually since 2006, keeping his core supporters motivated and trying to generate new ones. He arrived in Guadalajara on a Saturday afternoon during his last visit after a similar event in Colima in the morning. Internet savvy, AMLO is also one of the most fervent users of Facebook and Twitter in Mexican politics. A YouTube speech is updated on a weekly basis to inform supporters. In addition, he has set up a free newspaper called “Regeneracion,” which his network of supporters distribute, as he says, to balance the negative image he receives from the mainstream media.

The result of the work has clearly rejuvenated his support. To many, AMLO is like a religious figure. The assembled light up when he enters the room in Guadalajara and spark into chants such as, “It’s an honor to be with Obrador,” and the ever popular “presidente, presidente.”

AMLO keeps his faith close to his chest although he is widely believed to be a Presbyterian. His rhetoric has a subtle religious tone too, not just directed at overturning the status quo. Getting people to “wake up,” give them “hope” and “be honest” is part of AMLO’s appeal.

Take this quote from his speech in Guadalajara: “We are fighting for our moral and cultural values. There are so many Mexicans who wake up and think they having nothing to live for. They live without hope.”

The basis of the hope spelled out in his books is that there is no need for Mexicans to be poor — just look at the wealth of natural resources abundant in the country, he points out.

Many of AMLO’s supporters are clearly living on the bread line and are eager to thank him for his efforts on their behalf. But the news during his recent trip to Guadalajara wasn’t entirely good. Many of his workers around the state reported difficulties in garnering new support.

AMLO asked for a redoubling of efforts and for every one of his supporters to convert five others. He calculates that he has the support of 20 percent of Mexicans at present and that if each one of those converts five others he can win the presidency in 2012.

The problem is that AMLO’s name is, rightly or wrongly, tainted in the eyes of many Mexicans. The PRD has a new darling who is likely to be given a shot at the presidency: Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard. If both end up running in 2012, the result is very likely to cause a big split of the left wing, liberal vote in Mexico, which would hand power to either the PRI or the ruling PAN.

In that lies a lesson that the Tea Party might be wise to heed: don’t stray too far away from the Republicans or the consequences may come back to bite.