With six elections for state governorships, 116 local congress elections and 222 mayoral positions up for grabs in seven Mexican states in 2011, this year should give an excellent early idea of which parties are likely to be well positioned for the 2012 presidential election.
Luisa María de Guadalupe Calderón Hinojosa, sister of President Felipe Calderon may be the PAN’s upset candidate for Michaocan Governor.
The Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) looks in a strong position going into the year, with Enrique Peña Nieto, the handsome and charismatic young current governor of Estado de Mexico, leading the pack of political hopefuls for an anticipated assault on the presidency. The election of his successor could be a good indication of the lie of the political landscape as the Estado de Mexico includes a large part of Mexico City’s suburbs and has more than ten million inhabitants, roughly 13 percent of the country’s population.
In western Mexico, the election for the governorship of Guerrero on January 30 threatens to unseat the grip of the Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) on the state. The increased violence in Guerrero in recent years will surely play an important role too.
The big test for the left-of-center PRD comes in the state of Michoacan on November 13, when a new governor and 113 municipal mayors will be voted in. The state has generated negative headlines over the last few months because of clashes between the police and members of the Familia Michoacana drug cartel. To make matters worse, the current governor’s brother has been found guilty of having links to drug traffickers. Interestingly, President Felipe Calderon’s sister is widely tipped to be in the running for the governorship of Michoacan for the National Action Party (PAN).
As usual, alliances will play a big part. The PRI are likely to team up with the Green Party (PVEM) and other small parties but political commentators suggest that the conservative National Action Party (PAN) – Calderon’s party – could again collaborate with the PRD to try and oust the PRI. This unlikely left-right strategy has not been successful in other states but both parties believe it could represent their best chance in certain states where the PRI have traditionally been very strong. One such state is Jalisco’s neighboring Nayarit, which has just below one percent of the total population of the country.
2011 elections:
January 30: Guerrero
Governor, Congress and Mayoral. Incumbent Governor: Zeferino Torreblanca (PRD)
February 6: Baja California Sur
Governor. Incumbent: Narciso Agundez (PRD)
July 3: Coahuila
Governor and Congress. Incumbent: Humberto Moreira (PRI)
July 3: Nayarit
Governor, Congress and Mayoral. Incumbent: Ney Gonzalez (PRI)
July 3: Mexico State
Governor. Incumbent: Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI)
July 3 : Hidalgo
Mayoral
November 13: Michoacan
Governor, Congress and Mayoral. Incumbent: Leonel Godoy (PRD)
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